APRIL 7TH, 2001

INBREEDING TO SUPERIOR FEMALE LINES THE PERFORMANCE OF THE RASMUSSEN FACTOR IN 2000

by Rommy Faversham

For a method to be beneficial, it must lead to the desired condition more often than when it is not applied. For Thoroughbred breeders and their associates in the business mainly to sell, the priority of breeding to fashionable stallions is one rather obvious way to generate higher financial profits. Here, though, the goal of maximizing market value can sometimes supersede the objective of issuing the highest possible rate of superior individuals. For those who breed to race, there is no such paradox. Any method that increases the likelihood of getting superior racehorses and producers should well be considered. The issue, then, is really what systems are truly valid. This can only be determined by a sufficient analysis of the appropriate data. Breeding theories that are supported by no more than some hand-picked anecdotal evidence are very questionable in their future predictive value. Some of these have even become popular within the industry despite being inconsistent with proven and basic principles of Mendelian genetics. Still other approaches fail to appreciate that their nuance has become virtually ubiquitous throughout the breed and, therefore, of no particular merit as well.

The most valuable breeding strategies are those that have been properly tested over time and have, indeed, shown to outperform their collective opportunities. One such method that has demonstrated a unique proficiency across the entire spectrum of Thoroughbred lines since the origin of the breed is female family inbreeding (FFI). This has all been documented in our book, Inbreeding to Superior Females, by this author and Leon Rasmussen, published in 1999.

To evaluate this distinct pattern, the extended pedigrees of a large sampling of the collective and contemporary American Th oroughbred population were examined. The results showed that only about 4.0% are inbred to a female ancestor through different individuals within the first five generations (through the cross of full or half siblings within the first four generations of the pedigree). This assignment of inbreeding has come to be known as the Rasmussen Factor (RF). The 4% figure serves as a baseline to help judge the value of the RF.

Previously in this column (Bloodstock Topics, THOROUGHBRED TIMES, August 14, 1999), we surveyed U.S. graded stakes winner during the first half of 1999 and found that 11% demonstrated female family inbreeding (FFI) within five generations. This represented a significant share when compared to the 4% for the general population of runners. These }articles update the bookÕs basic premise that FFI outperforms its opportunities in the production of superior individuals.

This past year has been another completed time window that illustrates the advantages of inbreeding to female families. Table I is a list of the U.S. Graded Stakes Winners demonstrating the Rasmussen Factor in 2000. Over this period, there were 320 total individual graded stakes winners. As shown in Table 2, the 25 individuals with the RF represented 7.8% of the total number of graded stakes winners, almost twice the 4% of the general population. At the same time, there were 79 individual Grade 1 winners in 2000 and 8 of these (10.1%) demonstrated female family inbreeding within five generations.

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TABLE 1

2000 U.S GRADED STAKES WINNERS DEMONSTRATING
FEMALE FAMILY INBREEDING WITHIN FIVE GENERATIONS

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Graded Stakes Winner                   sire-dam                                         Inbreeding Pattern               2000 Graded Stakes Victories

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TABLE 2

Total number of of U.S. Graded Stakes Winners in 2000: 320

U.S. Graded Stakes Winners with FFI within 5 generations: 25 (7.8%)

Total number of U.S. Grade One Stakes Winners in 2000: 79

U.S. Grade One Stakes Winners with FFI within 5 generations: 8 (10.1%)

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One of the key features of Table I is the wide array of inbreeding patterns demonstrated by these successful individuals. In fact, during the course of our studies, we have never come across a consistently reproducible female family inbreeding pattern that was not deemed successful. In 2000, the 25 U.S. graded stakes winners with the RF were inbred to 20 different families. The only family represented by a multiple number was that of Almahmoud and her daughters, Natalma and Cosmah.

It's also worth noting that a number of these horses are quite modestly bred with their sire's stud fee falling well below $10,000. Additionally, the above table, and our overall work in general, fail to show any propensity toward any particular sex, distance or track surface.

Another way to study the effect of female family inbreeding is to look at a sire's progeny as a whole. Rahy's latest stakes star is Fantastic Light who recently captured the second annual Emirates World Series Racing Championship and a million dollar bonus when annexing the Hong Kong Cup (HK-1).

It's probably more than a coincidence that, so far, four of Rahy's five Grade I Winners have demonstrated the RF. Rahy's broodmare sire was Halo who shared the same grand-dam as Northern Dancer. When Rahy has been sent mares out of sons of Northern Dancer, the result has been inbreeding 5X5 to the great matriarch, Almahmoud. Serena's Song, Fantastic Light, Tranquility Lake and Exotic Wood, all multiple Grade/Group 1 winners, were out of mares by Northfields, Nijinsky II, Danzig and Dixieland Band, respectively (all sons of Northern Dancer). Many of Rahy's other top stakes winners were out of Northern Dancer-line broodmares.

It is, in fact, rather common to observe a disproportionate number of a sire's best (and richest) offspring demonstrating female family inbreeding. For example, in the 2001 Thoroughbred Times Stallion Directory, there are a total of 117 studs that have sired at least 10 stakes winners. Twelve of these (more than 10%) are represented by their richest stakes winner who demonstrates FFI within five generations. They are listed in Table 3. Again we see a broad spectrum of patterns that transcend sireline and stud fee. Many others with the RF are amongst their sire's top five earners.

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TABLE 3

STALLIONS WHOSE RICHEST STAKES WINNER DEMONSTRATES

FEMALE FAMILY INBREEDING WITHIN FIVE GENERATIONS

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Stallion                                              Sire's Richest Stakes Winner                                   Inbreeding Pattern

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TABLE 4

2000 EUROPEAN GROUP STAKES WINNERS DEMONSTRATING
FEMALE FAMILY INBREEDING WITHIN FIVE GENERATIONS

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Group Stakes winner                     sire-dam                                                    Inbreeding Pattern                               2000 Group Stakes Victories

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TABLE 5

Total number of of European Group Stakes Winners in 2000: 240

European Group Stakes Winners with FFI within 5 generations: 29 (12.1%)

Total number of European Group One Winners in 2000: 56

European Group One Winners with FFI within 5 generations: 11 (19.6%)

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Thoroughbreds demonstrating female family inbreeding were also very well represented in Europe last year. Table 4 is a list of European Group Stakes Winners demonstrating the Rasmussen Factor in 2000. Over this period, there were 240 total individual Group winners. As shown in Table 5, the 29 individuals with the RF represented 12.1% of the total. At the same time, there were 56 individual Group 1 winners in 2000 and 11 of these (19.6%) demonstrated female family inbreeding within five generations. í

These 29 European Group winners were inbred to a total of 10 different families. Nine individuals were inbred to Almahmoud or her daughter, Natalma. Another seven were inbred to the matriarch, Lalun. This latter pattern is becoming increasingly prominent as the male lines of Sadler's Wells and Never Bend are crossed. This inbreeding is generated since Lalun is the dam of both Never Bend and Bold Reason, the broodmare sire of Sadler's Wells. This is demonstrated in the pedigree of Group b 1 winner, Daliapour.

Finally, in Japan, there were a total of 85 individual Group winners in 2000. Ten of these, or 11.8% demonstrated female family inbreeding within five generations. The majority were the offspring of Sunday Silence (a son of Halo) out of Northern Dancer-line mares.

Throughout much of Thoroughbred history, the development of superior male and female lines have followed pathways in which complementary family strains have been crossed.

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Rommy Faversham is a pedigree writer and analyst living in Los Angeles. He is co-author of the recently published book, Inbreeding to Superior Females. His Web site is located at http://www.equicross.com

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